3 No, Robots Don’t Kill Trumpism

R.U.R vs. M.A.G.A.: The New York Times suggests that Trumpism is undone by robots:

Donald J. Trump told workers like Ms. Johnson that he would bring back their jobs by clamping down on trade, offshoring and immigration. But economists say the bigger threat to their jobs has been something else: automation.

Sure … but while it may be true that over time automation has been eating up unskilled (and skilled) jobs by the millions, that doesn’t vitiate Trump’s point.

a) For most unskilled jobs shipped offshore (like assembly line work) maybe robots would’ve “eventually eliminated those jobs anyway.” But not for all of them. Call centers, for example, haven’t been completely automated out of existence. Yet they can be (and are) offshored. Bringing them back would bring back some un-robotized jobs.

b) Even if all jobs global trade has sent offshore were instead done by robots, there will still be some unskilled jobs left that have to be performed here. Do we let undocumented immigrants stream into the country to do those jobs more inexpensively? Or do we tell American employers they have to hire from the finite pool of citizens, legal residents, and legal immigrants? “Clamping down on immigration” suddenly becomes more important, not less, as automation makes unskilled jobs less abundant.  If stopping outsourcing no longer has much impact (when robots take all the once-outsourced jobs), controlling immigration may be the main lever we have left if we want to tighten the labor market (and raise wages) for the unskilled jobs that remain.

In the not-so-distant future we may even come to regard unskilled jobs as precious assets, to be reserved for our fellow citizens and residents. After all, the alternative for those who can’t easily acquire marketable skills is unemployment or some kind of dignity-sapping dole (e.g. disability, or the much-discussed universal dole, or UBI).

That seems like an alternative to be avoided as long as possible. ….

 

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Apologies: The robot that painstakingly transferred my tweets to this site appears to have quit. Perhaps it attained consciousness. Fixing this problem turns out to be more difficult than expected.  We may need a new robot. It should be working again shortly. Meanwhile, you can still read the tweets on Twitter — I’m  @kausmickey. And all regular (non-Twitter) blog items are still posted here.

4 Borjas for Council of Economic Advisers

Here’s why Harvard economist George Borjas would be an inspired choice to run the Council of Economic Advisers in Trump’s White House. Put aside questions of formal qualifications, of which he has plenty— Prof. Borjas may be the nation’s most prominent economist when it comes Trump’s big issue, immigration. He’s certainly the most prominent economist sympathetic to Trump’s side. Specifically, Borjas refutes the comforting “narrative” that more immigration is “good for everyone,” arguing that it helps some groups (immigrants, employers) but hurts others — especially low-skilled Americans (and immigrants already here), against whom the newcomers compete. That’s the same group most obviously hurt by global trade. And it’s the heart of Trump’s winning constituency.

What happens if Trump names Borjas? He’ll be highly controversial. Which is great. There’ll be hearings — attention-getting hearings at which Borjas will be attacked as borderline deplorable by the small industry of well-funded economists and think-tankers who argue, counterintuitively, that immigration is an area where the laws of supply and demand don’t apply. (Flooding the market with new workers doesn’t lower wages! Not a #Slatepitch.) These critics may well have some good points to make (though in his latest book, We Wanted Workers, Borjas leaves one of the more prominent critics, Giovanni Peri, for dead like Darth Vader laid out on the lava banks of Mustafar). But if there’s a real argument, so much the better for the cause of making the Dem-leaning press aware that immigration control isn’t a matter of racism, or fear of “the other,” but largely a question of hard, dollars-and-cents economics for those (lower skilled workers) already hurt by modern economic trends (automation as well as trade). Let’s have it out! It’ll be like Kellyanne Conway vs. Mitt Romney, or Kellyanne Conway vs. Jennifer Palmieri! The noisier the better. Borjas will more than hold his own.

In the process, he might also address some other confounding issues (confounding to me, anyway): how, exactly, would mass immigration cure Lawrence Summers’ “secular stagnation”, as advertised, in a way that benefited the average worker? Is there really a skills “bottleneck” holding back production, or is that a fiction devised by employers who want to bring in cheaper foreigners? Will more immigrants help save Social Security? Is there any hope of luring more Americans into the labor force? The last chapter of Borjas’ book suggests he’ll address these, and other, issues with a mixture of professional creativity and humanity. (Example: Borjas estimates every 10 percent increase in the supply of unskilled labor lowers wages 3 to 10 percent. But he still favors a “mixed-skill” policy that lets in some unskilled immigrants for non-economic, humanitarian reasons–though maybe not from the Middle East.) He’s pro-assimilation, while worried about evidence of our eroding ability to assimilate the immigrants we’re getting.

Above all, he’s learned the hard way about the conformist power of PC narratives and conventions (e.g. “today’s immigrants are just like yesterday’s!”) — and the need to upend them when they don’t match reality. On Trump’s best days, that seems to be his calling as well.

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“Boosting wages is really hard to do” bv.ms/2fWcqrK [Cough] Tighten labor markets by having a border [Cough]!

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They only catch 54% between ports of entry and 39% at ports of entry. No wonder Obama admin. delayed release until… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…

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MSM too confident in its beliefs about the world? Debunked! bit.ly/2gqfiOu

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Looks like McCaul is good at gutting border control bills while pretending the opposite. Classic Washington Make-Be… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…

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Chris Matthews, having another good day. bit.ly/2gKRPWq

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“If Trump betrays voters on immigration, he can have as many rallies as he wants. He will never escape the stink” anncoulter.com/columns/2016-1…

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Romney @ State might be great if it weren’t part of what looks like a concerted hijacking of the Trump presidency b… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…

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Only 19 GOPs signed on to Boehner amnesty “principles”-Cantor, Ryan, Ellmers & MCCAUL… Mark of anti-borders brand shar.es/18uYvI

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McCaul signed Boehner’s amnesty “principles”? Dealbreaker! That was attempt to sneak through Gangof8/”Amnesty First” shar.es/18uCOz

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“I don’t doubt Mr. McCaul’s commitment 2 homeland security, but I do wonder abt his commitment 2 controlling immig.” go.shr.lc/2fPakKk

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Readers: Do you want Trump to have a press conference? I don’t want Trump to have a press conference. a) Busy b) Fr… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…

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Rule of thumb-If you were plain #NeverTrump-sure come groveling back 2 him 4 jobs. But if you denounced those who endorsed him as immoral…

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George Borjas of Harvard for Council of Economic Advisers? Nobody better on impact of immigration on well-being of voters …

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