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This @JoshuaGreen Trump-signed-his-death-warrant piece more persuasive than I’d hoped or expected. Still disagree bloom.bg/1UuBJvv
Mickey Kaus
Kausfiles
This @JoshuaGreen Trump-signed-his-death-warrant piece more persuasive than I’d hoped or expected. Still disagree bloom.bg/1UuBJvv
@kausmickey trump now has much longer odds as successful third party candidate, but can still deny GOP the win. All he needs 4 deterrence
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen it’s early but it appears he is Teflon to all these predictions of demise. So far.
@kausmickey @joshuagreen Presumes the primaries don’t matter. Magical thinking by GOP big boys.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen The measure of a Trump isn’t found on a piece of paper. Anyone who thinks it is wasn’t rooting for Trump anyways.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen Disagree, it showed he’s confident he’ll get nomination. It was a relief, this election is life or death for US.
@kausmickey have you written a rebuttal? I’ve been less than impressed with the counter arguments I’ve read, but still open to persuasion
@kausmickey @joshuagreen Not a Trump supporter, but he could win (esp if he does well in IA & NH). Gonna be a LOT of red faces eating crow
The piece takes it as an a priori that Trump cannot end up on the ticket. Metaphysical impossibility. I’m unsure why I should trust Joshua Green’s authority on this; if you think of Trump’s odds as even or better then the piece is relatively unpersuasive (Green’s 1st bulleted “myth,” which he claims to debunk but never nails down, is then vindicated). This might be good enough as empty calories for the Nat’l Journal horserace set — the mysteriously confident prose style is quite redolent of Jon Rauch, actually — but it’s still pseudo-journalism.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen Disagree, just the opposite, by pledging not to run as an independent, I think he will gain in the poles.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen More will rally for him because as an independent, it would hand it over to the Democratic party.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen Are you trying to say “persuasively?” And, with what do you disagree? Are you a California school graduate?
@JoshuaGreen @kausmickey Get with the program – cutting Social Security and Medicare?
The biggest threat to Trump is that people might get tired of him. I don’t think they would gravitate to Jeb Bush but maybe tune out.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen Trump is 69, now or never, must maximize chance of R nomination. Indy a run long shot, no 2020 to set stage for.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen The pledge is theater. Trump thinks he can blow up the GOP in the general if he wants.
.@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen Trump has 2 sign anyway 2 be on ballot some places & running as GOP will preclude 3rd party in many states anyway.
@kausmickey @JoshuaGreen he’ll do as he pleases. If he changes his mind his supporters won’t care.
Just another one in the long series of fortune tellers claiming they know “Trump will never survive ( fill in the blank )” as his numbers keep going up.
They aren’t gonna change their tune cause they only know one song.