Eight (8) theories on the heavily advertised embrace of Trump over Cruz by the disembodied GOP “establishment”:
1. They actually want to kill off Trump. The Establishment is not stupid. It knows voters hate it. Its embrace of Trump could be the kiss of death. Problem: Too obvious.
2. They actually want to kill off Cruz: They despise Cruz both on characterological and institutional grounds, as described here and here. They are not faking their preference for Trump. Problem: Are they dumb enough to think they have the power to derail Cruz in this political climate?
3. They actually want to kill off Rubio to promote Jeb!: By seeming to embrace Trump, they’re signalling they no longer have faith in former favorite Marco Rubio’s viability, as MSNBC’s Chris Hayes tweeted. But the Trump embrace is a fake! Once Rubio and Cruz have been derailed, the Establishment lane will be wide open for Jeb!, who’ll win in a head-to-head with Trump. Problem: Will Beltway pissing on Cruz really be interpreted as a devastating dis of Rubio? Seems a little hot takey. [Indeed, Hayes’ tweet may have been a joke.] And who, exactly, cares if the DC Establishment loses faith in Rubio? Some funders, maybe. Not voters, you’d think.
4. They’re actually trying to help McConnell: Even if they don’t think they can derail Cruz, they’ll get points with the Senate Majority Leader for trying to discipline an obnoxious freshman who caused him trouble and called him a liar. And if you’re a K St. lobbyist it may be more important to get Sen. McConnell on your side than to get your first choice into the White House.
5. It’s all about immigration. They’re actually still trying to pass amnesty: They realize the best way to get a legalization bill isn’t to elect an amnesty supporter like Rubio and then ram it through with the help of the MSM — that opportunity has passed, thanks to voters. No, their best hope now is to let the voters elect a vocal opponent of legalization (Trump) and then “coach” him into accepting legalization. Problem: Wishful thinking? Trump seems heavily invested in immigration control. Maybe there is an “Enforcement First” deal that could be cut, with Trump bludgeoning Dems into going along. But the GOP Establishment has never embraced it before.
6. They just want to win: They recognize Trump’s ability to reach out to new groups of general election voters, including African Americans. Problem: Why didn’t they realize this seven months ago?
7. They’re just bowing to the inevitable: Lobbyists are adaptive. Like it or not, Trump is going to win. Maybe if they curry favor with him now … Problem: Still seems a little early for this. There’ll be plenty of time after New Hampshire or South Carolina.
8. They are patriots: After careful thought, they’ve concluded that whatever his chances, Trump will make a better president. Problem: Yeah, right.
I favor #5, of course, which is why I stuck it in. You? …
#6 – Occam’s Razor. And they’re not as smart as you think, @kausmickey https://t.co/MFdvM27FjJ
8 Theories in Search of an Establishment https://t.co/ym8hKJd3cO
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2 is my choice.
Another possibility: they think trump will win regardless, so this is all arse- kissing for the president’s favour. It’s lobbying. Back scratching. Arse- kissing.
Scratch #3 bro. Jeb is dead. Trump did accomplish that, whatever else happens.
9. They still have their heads up their asses.
8 Theories in Search of an Establishment https://t.co/zI7EhE2viA
maybe # 6. seven months ago it wasn’t clear to anyone that Trump was viable, or even serious. Smart money bet he’d quit or flame out by Fall. When that didn’t happen, and his polls remained high, they had to reconsider and concluded that he’d stay the course after all, and probably win. Pragmatic decision on their part. Who knows maybe thy’re angling for Bush to be his VP.
#5 too because for sure they’ll try and turn him on immigration if he wins. but he’ll be able to demand 100% border security in exchange for even listening to their pleas.
MINE? JUST THROW EVERYTHING AGAINST WALL, SEE WHAT STICKS..8 Theories in Search of an Establishment | Mickey Kaus https://t.co/qAc3U5DJAq
What is the option that appears to lead to short-term financial gain? I would say option #4, cause of lobbying money on the details of what does and does not go into future bills.
8 Theories in Search of an Establishment https://t.co/uhIRxCtJoz #CruzNotTrump2016
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I think it’s a combination of #2, #6, and #7, and a more generalized version of #5. Trump has already shown his support for Ex-Im bank, corn ethanol, and other crony stuff. They figure that he can be “bent” on immigration, a lot easier than Cruz could be bent on, well, everything.
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[…] – 8 Theories in Search of an Establishment submitted by The Glittering […]
[…] – 8 Theories in Search of an Establishment submitted by The Glittering […]
[…] – 8 Theories in Search of an Establishment submitted by The Glittering […]
[…] – 8 Theories in Search of an Establishment submitted by The Glittering […]
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If I had to bet it’s a mostly a combination of #2 with #9:
9. ‘It’s a bet on Cruz losing, made in order to look powerful’:
Trump managed to bypass the establishment. This makes the established look weak. In their position, not having power is bad. Not having the *appearence* of power is fatal. If they can’t ensure the first, the second will have to do. So if and when Cruz loses (which may well happen regardless of their position) they can argue they did this (level of actual contribution to his loss wouldn’t matter that much – difficult to prove a negative after all), and that they still have at least some power. Which means other candidates in the future will wish to take their interests into account.
Problems:
A. Why not bet against Trump? Trump has right now a larger national base of support and his own chest. Safer to bet against Cruz.
B. What happens if Cruz wins the nomination anyway? Better to risk revenge than the appearance of powerlessness. Besides, more than a few suspect he’ll replace them anyway if he wins (see #2).
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[…] a reason that apostates from both parties — like Mickey Kaus from the left and Bruce Bartlett from the right — like Trump. And it’s not just because they are both of the […]