Shy Trumpies? The NYT’s Nate Cohn notes Trump has outperformed his polls in the last handful of states. Cohn speculates this shows “a significant shift in Mr. Trump’s favor over the last month.” What about something else … something that was talked about (somewhat pissily) in December but seems to have been forgotten — though it was raised in the past few days by Michael Walsh and alert kf reader M.S.. Don’t want to say its name. ..
P.S.: I know the “Bradley Effect” is the conceptual last resort of likely losers — i.e., those behind in polls. But here are the last six primary states, with the percentage Trump got in excess of his final RCP poll average:
New York +7 (Polls–53% Actual–60%)
Connecticut +5 (Polls–54% Actual 59%)
Delaware + 8 (Polls–55% Actual–63%) **
Maryland +9 (Polls–47.7% Actual–56.5%)
Pennsylvania +10 (Polls–48% Actual–58%)
Rhode Island +12 (Polls–52.3% Actual-64.7%)
Sense a pattern? Certainly with David Brooks, George Will, and others banishing Trump voters (“tainted forever after” … “quislings”) and others vowing to maintain blacklists, there are plenty of reasons for at least upscale Republicans to not want to confess Trump symphathies to strangers.
I’m not saying this means Trump will be competitive with Hillary in the voting booths. But it seems wise to increase your margin of doubt about his poll numbers. …
** — Only one RCP-listed poll in this state.