Is it in the Democrats’ interest to finally put the immigration issue behind them? Here’s my thinking: Democrats always seemed to want to keep the immigration issue alive — it was supposed to be the key to mobilizing Latino voters. So Democratic leaders were comfortable resisting any kind of deal unless it was the total victory they wanted, namely a deal that (by placing amnesty before enforcement ) held out the prospect of large future flows of immigrants (i.e. Democrats). Anything less than that … well, don’t even think about a deal. They’d rather ‘have the issue.’
But now Democrats have learned a) the Latino vote is a whole lot less immigration-obsessed than the immigration-obsessed pollsters at Latino Decisions would have you believe; and b) Democrats desperately need a way to make populist common cause with the working class whites who responded to Trump’s border-control rhetoric. One obvious way to win those white voters back is by taking immigration ‘off the table,’ allowing Dems to make their traditional, effective pitches about Social Security, Medicare, wages, trade, Wall Street, etc.
I don’t expect a Dem pivot in this direction anytime soon — the party, and especially its activists, are too immured in identity politics. But you’d expect at least some self-interested Congressional Dems to be much more open to an Enforcement First compromise along Trumpish lines: Do what has to be done to secure the border, then, eventually, do something to legalize the undocumented who are still here.
The future votes Dems would give up — no never-ending waves of illegal migrants to eventually convert into voters, sorry! — would be more than compensated for by short and medium term access to the Trump Belt voters Dems fatally lost in ’16.**
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** — Immigration amnesty was supposed to be a “threshold issue” for Latinos. But maybe border control is a threshold issue for the bulk of working class voters in the same way controlling welfare handouts (by requiring work) was a prerequisite for the success of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — if you don’t get that issue right, don’t bother talking to them about anything else.
THE BIG FLIP? Is it now in *Dems* interest to quickly put the immigration issue behind them? https://t.co/8RObILIB1R
“you’d expect at least some self-interested Congressionl Dems to be much more open to an Enforcement 1st compromise” https://t.co/TAm20wHAc5
Yes, they want the issue. And they don’t want to turn even more people against them. And with amnesty comes data. In both 1986 and 1996 amnesties, the actual number of people gaining citizenship was double the estimate. Imagine if that were the case now. Even if it is only 1/3 more, that is 16 million, not 12. An extra 4 million added to assorted income transfer programs with no increase in tax revenues?? People gonna go batshit crazy.
The Big Flip? | Mickey Kaus #Immigration https://t.co/pBEotZUyw7
The Big Flip? https://t.co/7KRLJR0hg2
Been hearing this from immig reform advocates: Give Trump wall in exchange for some legalization. https://t.co/plCcoiA2Hw
This is like suggesting that the GOP try to win back the academic vote it lost 90 years ago by embracing radical identity politics. The Democrats abandoned the white working class decades ago in favor of an alliance between white-collar professionals and minorities–that’s why Kaus is all in for the GOP PEOTUS today. The current Democratic party coalition sees nothing but upside from more immigration, which grows its base. This flip would make zero sense for them.
Ann Coulter should be in charge of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ICE Queen.
RT @kausmickey: It was supposed to be the GOPs who needed to ‘take immigration off the table.’ Turns out it’s the Dems https://t.co/8RObILr…
Good Read #democrats #Republicans https://t.co/sFOobCSYsu
RT @kausmickey: Immigration a “threshold issue” for … Dems. Need to secure borders in order to make pitch to Trumpy working class https:/…
That kind of thknniig shows you’re an expert
Slam dunkin like Shaquille O’Neal, if he wrote informative articles.